The Fed will cut rates by a quarter point this week. But with core PCE inflation settling around a percentage point above target, the new economic projections should be used…
The bull case for the US economy, and the stock market, this year has been outlined on numerous occasions. Clearly, many of the important factors that drove US equity markets…
The uptick in the unemployment rate should not detract from what was otherwise a solid payrolls report. Non-farm payrolls climbed 227k in November, and the average 3-month change firmed to…
The strong Japanese labour market, significant progress on wages, and accelerating core inflation, have helped push two-year JGB yields up to 0.62%. In a recent interview, Governor Ueda noted that…
The latest PCE inflation data add to the evidence, that the neutral rate in the US is very close to where the fed funds rate is right now. Core PCE…
It is widely acknowledged that the recent, unprecedented surge in US immigration has helped to rebalance the labour market. But this large, positive supply shock may be waning. Net international…
The ex-fresh food & energy measure of Japanese core CPI inflation has climbed further above the BoJ’s target, firming from 2.05% to 2.26% in October. The sharp easing of services…
