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Jun 25 2025
0

Powell pushes back

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

Fed chair Jay Powell does not bend easily. Two Fed governors (Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller) have called for rate cuts in July. Mr Powell wants to wait for the…

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Jun 23 2025
0

CBO revises up cost of Big Beautiful Bill

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

US equities have held up well in the face of uncertainty: the Trump administration had been inching towards joining Israel in attacks on Iran. On Saturday evening, the US finally…

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Jun 20 2025
0

Weekly Chartbook – June 20th 2025

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

To download a pdf of this chartbook, click here

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Jun 19 2025
0

Japan’s collapsing demographics

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

The Bank of Japan signalled on Tuesday that it was prepared to slow QT in response to recent, volatile increases in long-dated yields. It would, said Governor Kazuo Ueda, be…

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Jun 18 2025
0

Public sector pay is what matters for gilt market

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

The CBI has become the latest forecaster to downgrade its expectations for growth in the UK economy. It is ironic: the very increases in wage costs that have underpinned high…

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Jun 17 2025
0

Europe in a ‘new light’?

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

The industrial landscape is changing in Europe. Helsing, a Munich-based start-up, is ‘diversifying’ from its roots in AI and software to target drones, aircraft, and submarines. The ‘defence’ company is…

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Jun 16 2025
0

Record profit margins helping to absorb tariffs

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

Volatile oil prices have moved centre-stage again, after Israel’s attacks on Iran. Admittedly, Iran is less important to oil markets than Russia, and it is tempting to conclude markets will…

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Jun 13 2025
0

Weekly Chartbook – June 13th 2025

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

To download a pdf of this chartbook, click here

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Jun 11 2025
0

Labour’s Civil War

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

The Rachel Reeves leadership of the Treasury is fundamentally little different from that of her more recent predecessors. Jeremy Hunt, Rushi Sunak, Sajid Javid, Philip Hammond, Nadhim Zahawi and Kwasi…

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Jun 10 2025
0

JGBs face biggest adjustment of all debt markets

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

The relentless pressure on JGBs this year has been pinned on the persistent overshoot of inflation. Careful what you wish for: years of fighting deflation has perhaps blinded the Bank…

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Jun 09 2025
0

Trump vs Musk

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

The split between US President Donald Trump and technology leader Elon Musk will cause Republicans huge problems. Mr Musk may not be everyone’s cup of tea. But on one critical…

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Jun 06 2025
0

Japan Chartbook – June 6th 2025

By Graham Turner | Uncategorised | No Comments

The BoJ is considering slowing the pace of tapering of its bond purchases next fiscal year, in response to the recent selloff and heightened volatility in superlong JGBs. Super-long JGB…

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Recent Commentaries

  • Powell pushes back
  • CBO revises up cost of Big Beautiful Bill
  • Weekly Chartbook – June 20th 2025
  • Japan’s collapsing demographics
  • Public sector pay is what matters for gilt market


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