Undocumented infections have allowed Covid-19 to spread rapidly across the US, engulfing New York state (117 deaths). The number of Covid-19 deaths in the US is now up to 404. The total is rising by the hour as more states report. The US has the third highest number of positive cases of Covid-19 (32,081), behind only Italy (53,578) and China (81,397).
New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has lambasted residents for flouting calls for ‘social distance’. The number of positive cases for Covid-19 in New York rose 46.5% between Saturday and today (March 22nd).
Robert Jenrick, the communities secretary, has refused to rule out Italian-style lockdown in the UK. This now seems inevitable within a week. Reports of crowded beaches, parks, trail paths, and over-run rural communities suggest that compliance with social distance is weak. Cumbria, a popular rural destination, already has a high number of Covid-19 cases (79, one of the highest in the country), without the facilities of a big London trust hospital (which in turn, are at or close to ICU capacity).
Italy, of course, remains ‘ground zero’ in this escalating crisis, with 5,476 deaths and 59,138 positive cases for Covid-19 today (March 22nd).
The increase in absolute terms remain high. However, in percentage terms, it is possible to claim there is some slowing in the daily rate of increase (13.5% and 10.4% respectively). Italy has been in ‘national quarantine’ since March 9th.
The US administration is hoping large-scale fiscal support will counter the impact of rising Covid-19 fatalities. This will be wasted, indiscriminate stimulus if the lockdowns required to contain infections are not introduced and enforced. There are signs that the New York mayor may be ready to intervene.
• Slowing in rate of increase in Italy
• But that reflects belated impact of lockdowns
• NY in turmoil, and UK: behind the curve vis a vis Italy?
