The jump in US initial jobless claims (to 3.283m) was well above expectations today. Mr Trump has warned that the ‘cure’ may do more damage than the virus itself.
The US president can draw some support from notable Swedish industrialist, Jacob Wallenberg. Unemployment of 20-30% would do immense damage and cause bigger losses (to life) spread over many years, he warned.
Sweden is following a different course from most other European countries, with ‘an experimental virus strategy’ and fewer restrictions. Schools remain open.
Nevertheless, the last two days have seen a significant increase in number of Covid-19 cases in Sweden.
As China returns to work, there will be a sting in the tail – export orders have collapsed. However, the chance to get ahead in key areas critical to ‘Made in China 2025’ will not be lost. Donald Trump will not want to shut down the US for long. The question remains, how far will the US president go, in a bid to re-start the US economy.
It is a fine line. Go too soon, re-booting too early, runs the risk of a political backlash should the number of Covid-19 cases spiral upwards. This would undoubtedly damage the president’s chance of re-election. Leave it too late, and the layoffs will spiral upwards too: the warnings of Jacob Wallenberg will be vindicated.
• Claims soar
• Trump’s gamble, to reopen the US
• But NY Governor will challenge US president
