The longer term costs of using economic shutdowns to contain Covid-19 have not been evaluated.
In fairness, the UK Government seems determined to avoid a total shutdown, ordering builders’ merchants this week to re-open (to support the construction supply chain) after they initially closed.
The IPPR estimated in 2019 that there had been 131,000 preventable deaths since 2013 – as a result of the cuts in spending on public health policy that followed the last recession. An important report from the IPPR has also argued that preventable poor health is the biggest long term crisis facing the NHS.
Data from the ONS suggests this is an underestimate: “In 2018, approximately 22% of all deaths in the UK were considered avoidable (138,293 deaths out of 616,014)”
The UK Government, along with many others, has committed to big increases in public sector spending to counter the economic fallout from shutting down society. The short term benefits of the current strategy need to be weighed against the risks that governments will not be able to meet future demands on the health care system, because of economic contraction.
• Better policy debate needed
• Focus on preventable poor health
• Antibody tests may be key
