The threat of a second, significant wave of infections cannot be ruled out.
In the UK, the Conservative Government argues that ending the lockdown too soon, precipitating another spike in infections, would do more damage to the economy.
It is unquestionably a difficult call. Nevertheless, the rate of new infections has fallen sharply, particularly in London.
The figures for East London are illustrative. East London is partially covered by the Barts Health NHS Trust, which has four major hospitals in three different boroughs, and a catchment area of 2.5m. It has the fifth highest number of fatalities for Covid 19 in England (309, 2.1% of the total, April 19th, NHS England).
However, in the 24 hours to 8 a.m. April 20th, there were just 16 admissions for patients with Covid 19 (across the four major hospitals). This is not a fluke. The average for the last four days has been 21. There has been a steady, downward trend since the peak on April 3rd, when 91 patients with Covid-19 were admitted to Barts.
Across the country, the trend is down, although some areas are inevitably lagging.
The Government is reportedly ‘split’ over how soon to reverse the lockdown. The debacle around personal protection equipment and the threat of boycotts by medical care workers may be stalling an early return to ‘normal service’. The union Unite has told its members that it will support ‘strikes’. The medical director of Public Health England has agreed that staff could refuse to work if they believed they were not properly protected.
