The May PMIs should mark the bottom for the UK economy. The Covid-19 crisis has taken a huge toll, but construction, manufacturing and some services are re-starting. The problem will be organised resistance.
The fight over schools is pivotal, with the safety card being used by some local authorities and unions (including the BMA) to argue against any swift return of pupils.
Of course, there is a risk of a second and third wave of infections, and some senior medical advisers cite 1918 (Spanish flu) to support their case: it is too premature to contemplate a full re-opening of schools and the economy. The WHO has warned of a second ‘more deadly coronavirus wave’ this winter.
Nevertheless, comparing pandemics is fraught with complications. The best evidence from today’s experience suggests that the virus is not transmissible between students and adults.
Waiting for a vaccine may not be an option either. Progress at the Jenner Institute, Oxford University, has been disappointing.
The Government has a strong majority. It will not fall. But public sentiment is on the side of the NHS and other public sector workers. That is understandable. Health care and transport workers have been on the frontline, suffering significant loss of life. But the row over schools re-opening is a litmus test. Aiming for zero risk is not tenable given the deleterious impact posed by an extended lockdown on public sector finances.
