The stage is set for several months of strong payroll reports in the US as unemployment benefits expire. This may belatedly put some upward pressure on Treasury yields.
Small business owners reported a record high for unfilled job openings (49%) in July, according to the NFIB.
Official and more comprehensive BLS job openings data (JOLTS) delivered another impressive (+590k) rise in Monday’s report, surpassing 10 million for the first time in the data series’ history (10.07m in June). May was also revised up from 9.21m to 9.48m.
In June, job openings outnumbered persons ‘officially’ looking for work by 589k.
If the current record level of job openings remains unchanged next month (data from indeed.com suggest that vacancies in fact edged up in July), job openings will be 1.371m above unemployed persons (which fell 782k in July). This would surpass the February 2020 ‘differential’ of 1.295m.
In summary, the labour market is getting very tight. And the anecdotal evidence matches the data.
Summary
- Vacancies rise to a record
- Professional & business services lead gains
- ‘Flexibility’ may check rise in wages
