The Federal Reserve has shifted to a more hawkish stance, as expected, but the Fed’s outlook for PCE inflation and core PCE inflation remain overly ‘optimistic’. The unwind of many…
In the UK, Omicron infections are running at 200k a day, according to the UK Health Security Agency, based on new modelling. The spread of Omicron is very fast, and…
Two-year Treasuries rallied after Friday’s CPI report ostensibly because there was no inflation ‘surprise’. Crude oil has dropped 16.3% since October 26th. Omicron remains a risk: in the UK, further…
The rise in the renminbi this year has been striking, both on a trade-weighted basis (+8.25%) and against the dollar (+2.29%). The trade surplus remains at record levels. At the…
The huge commodity resources required for the green energy transition have come into focus this year. COP26 was a bit of a damp squib, but there has been a sea…
The household survey was much stronger than the establishment survey. Employment on the CPS measure increased 1,136k. By comparison, payrolls were up just 210k in November. Labour shortages were evident…
