The household survey was much stronger than the establishment survey. Employment on the CPS measure increased 1,136k. By comparison, payrolls were up just 210k in November.
Labour shortages were evident in leisure & hospitality, which added 23k jobs in November, down from +170k in October. For retail, the shift online and investment in automation may be stymieing the jobs recovery: retail trade jobs fell unexpectedly by 20.4k.
Information payrolls are down 4.22% since the pandemic began. This may seem counterintuitive. But employment growth continues to be strong in those areas related to the supply, storage, access, and searching of information.
‘Professional & technical services’ payrolls are up 3.78% since February 2020: ‘scientific research & development services’ have gained 10.58% over this period. The latter mirrors the steep ramp up in company R&D spending.
In short, key employment trends in place prior to the pandemic, reflecting important structural shifts in the US economy, remain embedded.
The data for average hourly earnings were at first glance more dovish. Some workers may be foregoing larger pay packages to obtain other perks (e.g., flexible working). But average hourly earnings for production & non-supervisory workers are climbing at a faster rate: this may be a more accurate gauge of underlying wage pressures in the economy right now.
There are pockets of sharp wage increases: the y/y rate for transportation & warehousing average hourly earnings (production & non-supervisory workers) surged 10.36%.
