There is a risk now that the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will push oil past $100/barrel. It could be argued that any conflict would be negative for global growth…
The RoMac Whole House Commodity Index jumped again in mid-February by 7.5% m/m to $64,079, a new record. The spread of price pressures beyond lumber is indicative of the supply…
Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations increased significantly to 3.6% during February, up from 3.4% in January, according to the latest Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Survey. Businesses in the Sixth District…
Green energy stocks continue to struggle after a difficult 2021, a sharp reminder of the bumpy transition to a greener future. The renewable energy sector has been particularly hard hit…
There was nothing consoling in this CPI report. There was no evidence of a hit from Omicron: on the contrary, services inflation accelerated. Together with the January payrolls report, it…
The ECB belatedly moved to catch up with markets last week. Recent inflation surprises have forced the central bank to change track. Labour market recoveries have been swift, particularly for…
Average hourly earnings increased 0.73% m/m in January, a stronger rise than in December (+0.54% m/m). The y/y accelerated to 5.68%. The Treasury market has responded, with big moves: the…
