If it occurs, next year’s recession will be one of the mostly widely anticipated in history. A relatively benign recession is currently priced in. Indeed, credit spreads are narrowing. The…
There is no easy exit strategy from zero-Covid for Xi Jinping. The CCP has been trapped by its own (draconian) policy. The only thing worse than three years of zero-Covid,…
China recorded a record number of Covid cases on Wednesday. More than 1.3 million people were under medical supervision this week as close contacts. The PBoC announced another cut of…
Japan is emerging from its ‘deflationary mindset’. The BoJ is at risk of overshooting its inflation target over the next couple of years. It is not so clear how to…
In summary, there is one key takeaway from the latest OBR forecasts: a growing share of the UK economy’s resources will now be directed towards debt servicing. The sensitivity of…
The Chancellor has been handed ‘horrible’ forecasts by the OBR. The outlook for growth has also deteriorated since March. UK real GDP was still 0.4% below its pre-coronavirus level in…
The Fed’s inflation problem has not disappeared due to one ‘positive’ CPI reading. There have been many premature declarations of a ‘pivot’. A single reading does not make a trend…