- Relief at drop in headline inflation tempered by slow progress on core: food price hikes slow, as supermarkets and food manufacturers come under the spotlight for ‘greedflation’. Input costs are falling. But core goods and services remain sticky (pages 2 – 5)
- Employment growth has slowed, with full-time employees falling y/y in May. Workforce survey was very strong in Q1, but unemployment is rising, reflecting big increase in labour force. Non-EU and EU workers rose strongly in Q1. Labour market participation rate rising. ‘Part-time, could not find a full time job’ fell sharply, an indicator of tight labour market. Wage pressures persist, with median pay rising close to 10% y/y (pages 6 – 24)
- Worrying drop in productivity in Q1 (page 25)
- PMIs point to slowdown in June, but CBI survey for July showed significant improvement (pages 26 – 27)
- Real GDP growth has stalled. Industrial production turning up, helped by capital goods. Business investment firms. But construction weak, and consumption flat (pages 28 – 40)
- Higher interest rates slow household and corporate lending (pages 41 – 44)
- Rising public sector debt (100.8% of GDP) remains big concern: no margin to absorb next big extraneous shock to hit the UK (page 45)
- Housing market remains soft (pages 47 – 51)
- Current account improved sharply in Q1, providing belated justification for strong rally in sterling. Services and rising net investment income contribute (page 52)
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