There is no evidence yet, that layoffs are climbing materially in the US. Unadjusted initial claims are still running below their 2017-2019 average (237k), years in which the labour market…
With a tail of 5.3 bps, last Thursday’s 30-year bond auction was a reminder: rising bond issuance poses a systemic threat for markets. Primary dealers had to accept 24.7% of…
The details of the most recent Quarterly Refunding were the catalyst for the slide in Treasury yields. A weaker ADP, and then payrolls, added to the rally. Nevertheless, primary dealers…
Ultimately, the decision by the US Treasury to skew increases in issuance towards tenors which have less sensitivity to term premium increases, could backfire. The “meaningful deviation” from the historical…
Real yields in the US converge around 2.5%. Against this backdrop the policy mix in Japan remains untenable. The reaction to the change in the BoJ’s YCC was telling. The…
