With three rate cuts projected for 2024, the Fed is signalling it is prepared to run this economy hot. There is a distinct possibility that real rates have now fallen…
Treasury yields fell again yesterday, following dovish comments by a more hawkish member of the FOMC, Governor Christopher Waller. Markets are now pricing in that the Fed may cut as…
Some are sceptical of the ‘true’ underlying strength of the labour market because recent job gains have been concentrated in healthcare & social assistance and government. It is true: excluding…
The FOMC’s median estimate of the natural real interest rate remains pinned at 0.5%, allowing Fed Chair Powell to claim that policy is “well into restrictive territory”. But this is…
