Services inflation is picking up in the US, but there are good reasons to believe that even this is understated. The much-anticipated tumble in shelter CPI inflation has yet to materialise….
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The Fed has its back against the wall. The core CPI (ex-food, energy & shelter) climbed by an annualised 3.31% in Q1. The 3-month annualised rate for the core services ex-energy &…
The headline GDP figure for Q1 came in below expectations but the underlying numbers were strong once again. More significantly, the core PCE price index rebounded by an annualised 3.73%…
China is accelerating its “new productive forces” campaign, focussing on high-end production of electric vehicles, solar panels, and batteries. But ‘excess capacity’ will further stoke trade tensions. Capacity utilisation for…
Oil shrugged off fears over the weekend of a wider escalation in the Middle East: Iran’s response was highly telegraphed. Bonds continued to sell off, however, despite some anticipation of a…
After another very strong payrolls report on Friday, markets are finally pricing in less than three rate cuts this year: eventually, all rate cuts may get priced out. Aggregate weekly…
