The Fed’s inflation problem has not disappeared due to one ‘positive’ CPI reading. There have been many premature declarations of a ‘pivot’. A single reading does not make a trend…
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The reopening of the Chinese economy will be a double-edged sword for markets. Stocks may get a short-term reprieve. But the reaction of oil prices today was telling: at one…
The deflator for September was as positive for the stock market as it could have been, given the CPI report for that month. The discrepancy with the CPI marginally improves…
The drop in house prices (FHFA, Case-Shiller) helped to push US Treasury yields down sharply on Tuesday & Wednesday. A spate of poor regional Fed survey data this week has…
Markets are readying themselves for US-China decoupling by sharply reducing exposure to Chinese stocks. Some Japanese companies have started exploring ways to go ‘zero-China’, with Honda Motor exploring a project…
The 10-year Treasury yield ended Friday at 4.21%, down from an intraday high of 4.32%, following this WSJ article. The piece may have been interpreted as indicating a Fed ‘pivot’….
Homebuilder sentiment fell for the 10th straight month in October, down eight points to 38, and more than half the level of just six months ago. Yet the 10-year Treasury…
