Rate futures are factoring in about 250 basis points in Fed cuts by September of 2025. Such steep cuts have historically coincided with (deep) recessions. However, there are many important…
Chinese government bond yields continue to tumble as deflation becomes entrenched. As usual, there have been calls for China to adopt an aggressive fiscal stimulus to reflate the economy, directly…
Underlying wage growth continues to strengthen, keeping the BoJ firmly on track to pursue further policy normalisation. The y/y for contractual, scheduled cash earnings accelerated to 2.7% in July, the…
The unreliability of Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates has made the job of the BoE more challenging. But the ostensible weakness in the labour market has been exaggerated. The number…
