The significance of yesterday’s drop in oil prices, despite a strong ADP report in the US, should not be underplayed. WTI crude has subsequently dropped below $50/barrel today. The global…
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The unravelling of the Chinese financial system has been predicted on numerous occasions since 2011. The latest social financing numbers from China will do nothing to ease these fears. Shadow…
The decline in FX reserves has slowed. Currency effects may have played a role, but there are signs that capital controls are beginning to work: December saw the smallest level…
The PBoC’s attack on short-sellers has provided some respite for the renminbi. China is imposing stricter capital controls. A clampdown by US and European authorities on Chinese FDI may also…
The sell-off in Chinese corporate bonds and the clampdown on domestic credit growth need to be seen in context: the rise in corporate bond yields will accelerate the shift from…
The prospect of faster rate hikes in the US has unnerved emerging markets in recent weeks. The low delinquency rates for US households and the higher capital ratios of banks…
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It is easy to attribute the relative calm in the Yuan to China’s huge credit stimulus in the early months of 2016 and the subsequent stabilisation in commodity prices. Critics…
