In summary, there is one key takeaway from the latest OBR forecasts: a growing share of the UK economy’s resources will now be directed towards debt servicing. The sensitivity of…
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The Bank of England has widened the scope of its daily gilt purchase operations to include the purchase of index-linked gilts after a surge in real yields on Monday. Once…
The Gilt market operations are a specific measure to tackle a specific problem: prevent disorderly fallout from collateral calls on pension fund LDI strategies. The FPC action was not taken…
There are many crosswinds impacting on the direction of global sovereign bond yields. Persistent services inflation in the US and a very tight labour market (initial claims have fallen back…
The recent spike in the 30-year Gilt yield may be instructive: the pressure on bond markets, where governments are not controlling their borrowing, is rising. The signalling mechanism is critical…
The next Prime Minister will be announced on Monday September 5th. Whoever it is will face a daunting set of economic challenges, including a public sector debt burden at 96.1%…
In its Spring Statement, the UK Government claimed that faster growth in tax revenues had given it headroom to cut taxes and assist households and businesses, to counter rising fuel…
The Bank of England faces significant potential losses on its balance sheet as it unwinds quantitative easing. However, higher interest rates are not the source of these potential losses. Failure…
The ECB belatedly moved to catch up with markets last week. Recent inflation surprises have forced the central bank to change track. Labour market recoveries have been swift, particularly for…
In the UK, Omicron infections are running at 200k a day, according to the UK Health Security Agency, based on new modelling. The spread of Omicron is very fast, and…
