China recorded a record number of Covid cases on Wednesday. More than 1.3 million people were under medical supervision this week as close contacts. The PBoC announced another cut of…
Read More
The deflator for September was as positive for the stock market as it could have been, given the CPI report for that month. The discrepancy with the CPI marginally improves…
The drop in house prices (FHFA, Case-Shiller) helped to push US Treasury yields down sharply on Tuesday & Wednesday. A spate of poor regional Fed survey data this week has…
The drop in the jobless rate to 3.49% in September was the most important data point from Friday’s payrolls report. The unemployment rate is well below the Fed’s median estimate…
An earnings warning and withdrawal of full-year guidance sent shares of FedEx plummeting on Friday (-21.4%). That the global economy is slowing is not news, nor is the normalisation of…
The US economy is well below its natural rate of unemployment and is adding payrolls at a rate of 437k a month (average three-month change). The unemployment rate tumbled 14…
The semiconductor cycle is turning and, with it perhaps, the short, sharp period of durables inflation experienced globally over the last two years. Shortages in the semiconductor industry will soon…
Consumer spending is now weakening in the US, as inflation takes its toll. The Conference Board’s expectations index for consumer confidence is finally catching up to the slide in the…
We have reached an important juncture on sovereign bonds. WTI crude has fallen back from its recent highs, and Chinese iron ore prices are sliding on growth concerns. The Philly…
The slide in cryptocurrencies has captured a lot of the headlines, but the bigger story is the rapid normalisation of real yields, the impact on corporate credit spreads, and the…
