Last week’s big decline in US Treasury yields is not necessarily a ‘vote of no confidence’ in risk assets. Lyft’s impressive debut on Friday shows investors are still willing to…
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In a world of low inflation, it is quite possible that bond market curves will invert (modestly) without this being a signal that policy is too tight. It may simply…
Falling bond yields are good for the world economy and, of course, risk assets. In the US, the S&P 500 pushed through the 2,800 – 2,815 area of resistance on…
Oil prices climbed for the fifth day running on Friday. However, the break-even inflation rate for 10-year Treasuries rose by just four basis points last week and remains well down…
Despite a heavy schedule for Treasury auctions, real yields have fallen over the past week or so. Indeed, the ten-year yield has dropped 13 bps since March 21, with real…
The three-year revision to GDP incorporated updated numbers from a variety of sources. Annual revisions pushed the y/y change for personal consumption up from an average of 2.9% to 3.1%…
Next month’s CPI data is perhaps more important than the payroll report. After four soft readings, another low print for the core CPI would be very hard to ignore. The…
Friday’s rebound in payrolls and Mr Macron’s strong showing on Sunday could help propel US equities and other markets to new highs. By contrast, Chinese regulators are tightening the screws. In…
It seems rather misguided to be discussing how a ‘new growth model’ is driving the US economy when real GDP growth slowed to an annualised rate of just 0.7% in…
The resilience of the equity market in the face of significant ‘political risks’ – home and abroad – has been impressive. Technology companies have been responsible for a large part…
