Price wars in wireless phone charges pulled core inflation down spectacularly in the US last month. It is a classic illustration of how intense competition has driven the NAIRU lower….
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Adverse weather provided a convenient excuse for the poor payroll number on Friday, but the sharp drop in the jobless rate unnerved bond investors too. The Fed’s willingness to end…
The so-called gap between hard and soft data in the US could reflect misplaced optimism over the Trump administration. There is an alternative explanation. The hard numbers – notably GDP…
Reflation of the US economy was, not for the first time, called into question last week. The sharp uptick in sentiment indicators has seemingly failed to spur ‘animal spirits’ in…
The FOMC is sitting on the fence. The Trump administration may struggle to deliver on some campaign promises. However, the key to higher equity valuations lies in the ability of…
The payroll data were strong enough to suggest that the Fed could hike four times this year. In truth, there were a number of caveats that show the pick-up in…
The significance of yesterday’s drop in oil prices, despite a strong ADP report in the US, should not be underplayed. WTI crude has subsequently dropped below $50/barrel today. The global…
The reaction to Mr Trump’s speech last Wednesday shows that the equity market rally of recent months has not been driven exclusively by the promise of huge infrastructure spending and…
All eyes will be on Mr Trump’s speech to Congress tomorrow. Commodity prices have dropped following suggestions that the President’s infrastructure spending pledge will be delayed. The reflation trade has…
The high S&P PE ratio points to an overvalued US equity market. However, the reverse earnings gap remains below historical standards. This is not just due to low interest rates:…
