The four-week average for jobless claims has fallen to new cyclical lows. The claims data may overstate the potential drop in the U3 rate because of the smaller decline in long-term unemployment….
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Friday’s dip in the y/y for average hourly earnings to 2.5% and the strong payrolls, combined with the promise to “cut a lot out of Dodd-Frank”, are all bullish for…
Tough new policies on immigration have cast a cloud over the US technology sector, a big contributor to economic growth in 2016. Mr Trump has backtracked on green cards. However, his restrictions…
Wages softened last month according to the Atlanta Fed. The core CPI (ex-food, energy & shelter) showed only a modest rise in December too, following three benign months. Last week’s…
The question of how far inflation rises in 2017 will be critical to the performance of equities. Surveys point to an acceleration in wages this year, but the relentless march…
Average hourly earnings are beginning to reflect the strong gains recorded by the Atlanta Fed’s median wage tracker. The FOMC appears to have fallen behind the curve. Faster wage inflation…
The breakdown of the BEA profits data released on December 22nd suggests equities are well placed to extend their rally in 2017. Strong profits in the retail sector shows how…
The prospect of faster rate hikes in the US has unnerved emerging markets in recent weeks. The low delinquency rates for US households and the higher capital ratios of banks…
Strong growth and benign inflation will be positive for the US stock market in 2017. Core inflation slipped again in November. Bond yields will still rise as the Fed belatedly…
Eric Rosengren may have been outvoted on Wednesday last week, but he is not going to roll over quietly. In a statement released on Friday, the Boston Fed president noted…
