The rise in individual income tax receipts has been relentless, suggesting that the federal budget deficit for FY22 will significantly undershoot the CBO’s latest forecast of $1.036tr. Nevertheless, the CBO…
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The y/y for the consumption deflator in the US eased from 6.61% to 6.27% in April. The gap between headline CPI and PCE price index inflation has now widened to…
Severe price pressures have buffeted the global economy over the past year and a half. But there are now emerging pockets of disinflation (beyond used cars & trucks). Lumber futures…
Homebuilder sentiment slid at the start of May according to the NAHB, marking the fifth straight monthly decline. Housing remains a key barometer of the broader economy. It is no…
The value of home sales in China slumped 48.6% y/y in April. Rising unemployment combined with falling house prices and sales could auger a fresh wave of defaults across the…
The authorities in China are intensifying lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing in their latest attempts to eradicate Covid. Xi Jinping doubled down on the zero-Covid strategy last week. But the…
Leveraged loans are outperforming and remain very resilient. Initially, floating-rate debt will be more attractive to investors as rates start to rise. But warnings regarding the leveraged loan market are…
Revisions to the seasonal adjustment factors have pushed initial claims to fresh secular lows in the US. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a new multi-year high of 2.697% this morning….
There are two takeaways from the March Business Inflation Expectations survey: 1) business inflation expectations for firms in the Sixth District accelerated again in March (i.e., no sign of a…
Monetary policy appears to have exhausted itself: the EU is now considering ‘massive’ bond issuance to finance energy and defence spending. Governments in the EU and UK are going to…
