The RoMac Whole House Commodity Index jumped again in mid-February by 7.5% m/m to $64,079, a new record. The spread of price pressures beyond lumber is indicative of the supply…
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Firms’ year-ahead inflation expectations increased significantly to 3.6% during February, up from 3.4% in January, according to the latest Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Survey. Businesses in the Sixth District…
There was nothing consoling in this CPI report. There was no evidence of a hit from Omicron: on the contrary, services inflation accelerated. Together with the January payrolls report, it…
Average hourly earnings increased 0.73% m/m in January, a stronger rise than in December (+0.54% m/m). The y/y accelerated to 5.68%. The Treasury market has responded, with big moves: the…
Despite briefly entering correction territory on Monday (down 4.0% on the day at one point) the S&P 500 has fallen just 0.9% so far this week. Major indices pared big…
Energy prices were supposed to contribute to the normalisation of prices in 2022. But Brent crude rose to the highest level since 2014 this morning. The rebound in oil prices…
According to a Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta survey, businesses in the Sixth District now expect wages to climb by just under 8.0% y/y in 2022. Given how tight the…
The recovery in healthcare payrolls was short-lived, up just 49.6k in 2021. To put this into context, the US added 335.6k healthcare jobs in 2019. Healthcare payrolls are still 2.73%…
The last commentary of 2021 (US: Warning for equities in 2022, December 20th, 2021), noted that the unwind of many pandemic related price increases had proved to be short-lived. Price…
The Federal Reserve has shifted to a more hawkish stance, as expected, but the Fed’s outlook for PCE inflation and core PCE inflation remain overly ‘optimistic’. The unwind of many…
