Two-year Treasuries rallied after Friday’s CPI report ostensibly because there was no inflation ‘surprise’. Crude oil has dropped 16.3% since October 26th. Omicron remains a risk: in the UK, further…
Read More
The household survey was much stronger than the establishment survey. Employment on the CPS measure increased 1,136k. By comparison, payrolls were up just 210k in November. Labour shortages were evident…
Current vaccines are likely to provide protection against severe illness from the new variant of Covid-19. First reports suggest the symptoms are ‘mild’. Valuations would appear stretched, perhaps explaining the…
Equity markets are falling this morning on concerns over a new Covid-19 variant. For now, there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding its transmissibility and the efficacy of current vaccines….
The secular upward trend in the share of the S&P 500 market capitalisation captured by the largest companies in the US is continuing unabated. The market capitalisation of FAAMG+, which…
Concerns over global growth are weighing on oil prices, providing support for Treasuries. Alibaba sharply cut its guidance for the rise in revenues in FY2022 to 20-23% y/y, far below…
The corporate health of US small businesses may not be as strong as the headline National Income & Product Accounts (NIPA) corporate profit figures suggest. The NFIB Small Business Optimism…
Average hourly earnings and hourly compensation data do not point to a squeeze on margins, for now. Nevertheless, the latest productivity & costs report for Q3 offered a warning. Non-farm…
The pressure on staff costs is intensifying. The ‘Great Resignation’ pushed the employment cost index up 1.36% q/q (3.75% y/y) in Q3. Retail trade saw the biggest annual rise, with…
The core CPI, excluding shelter has been benign over the last three months (see chart on page 4). The annualised rate for these three months is just 1.81%. The durables…
