The stage is set for several months of strong payroll reports in the US as unemployment benefits expire. This may belatedly put some upward pressure on Treasury yields. Small business…
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Despite the spread of the delta variant of Covid-19, it seems premature to talk about growth ‘concerns’ in the US economy. On the contrary, the Federal Reserve’s latest Senior Loan…
China’s tech clampdown is not unexpected in the context of its pledge to tackle anticompetitive practices, as outlined in the five-year plan (2021-2025). US tech giants are being hit with…
For now, the bond market has been clear in its message: inflation is not the pressing issue. Markets appear to be more concerned about economic growth. US real yields have…
The ‘transitory’ inflation narrative has taken hold, becoming the dominant view in financial markets. Inflation will inevitably moderate as base effects peak. This is clearly what the Treasury market believes….
Treasury yields are tumbling. A slowdown in China and the spread of the Covid-19 delta variant are driving the view that developed economy Central Banks will act less quickly to…
Friday’s PCE report contained some good news for the Fed. The core deflator (ex-food & energy) rose 0.48% m/m in May. The core CPI (ex-food & energy) was up by…
The FOMC has flattened the Treasury yield curve this week. Whether that was the Fed’s intention is not clear. Officials may have preferred a bigger reaction at the long end…
Online job advertisements in the UK rose another 1.9% in the week to June 4th, according to the ONS. On this measure, vacancies are now 28.9% above February 2020 levels….
The Fed will be keen to avoid a taper tantrum. But a smooth exit may not be possible given the huge borrowing demands of the US Federal government. The accumulating…
