Watch wages like a hawk should be the current mantra of policymakers. The key number is not employment, but wages. The payrolls miss (up 559k) on Friday was largely inconsequential,…
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There is no stopping the Biden administration. The economy is recovering well. And yet, the US president is determined to push ahead with the biggest fiscal reflation in decades. A…
The Treasury market remains vulnerable to further upside surprises in inflation going into the summer. The ‘transitory’ nature of these price moves will be hotly debated. The Shanghai containerised freight…
The Biden administration has come under fire for distorting the labour market and pushing the natural rate of unemployment higher. Republicans have been vocal in their critique of disincentive effects…
According to President Biden, the big miss for Friday’s payrolls reinforces the need for massive fiscal stimulus. There is, of course, another interpretation: with such generous government support, Americans are…
Digital platforms are now more dominant than ever before. Facebook, Google, and Amazon increased their share of the digital-ad market from roughly 80% in 2019 to around 90% in 2020….
A central tenet of the $1.8tr American Families Plan is the low labour market participation rate in the US. The Biden Administration wants to boost the female participation rate, in…
The political opposition to Biden’s latest tax plans should not be underestimated. Even Democrats in more affluent seats are queasy at the tax hikes touted to fund increased health and…
The economy is on fire, cost pressures ostensibly rising, federal government borrowing is skyrocketing, and yet Treasuries are not interested. The 10-year yield is now 16 basis points below its…
Treasury yields fell sharply yesterday despite a spate of strong economic reports (initial claims, retail sales, manufacturing surveys). The reaction was a ‘goldilocks’ moment for equities, as real yields fell….
