Inflation was expected to turn higher in the spring because of base effects. Big price drops in the early months of the pandemic are now dropping out of the annual…
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The dollar has ‘defied expectations’ this year, but the pause in the Treasury bond market sell-off has prompted a reversal. The trade-weighted dollar has fallen 1.2% since the start of…
The number of Covid-19 infections reported in the US yesterday (April 5th) was down 5.6% from a week earlier (to 5,742). Fatalities fell 26.0%. In the UK, infections have dropped…
The reverse yield gap, based on 10-year Treasury yields, shows that the equity market could soon be more expensive than any time since the dark days of the credit crunch….
A new era of big government and excessive public sector borrowing remain the pertinent risks for US and global equities. The slow grind in Treasuries continues, with 10-year yields up…
The 10-year Treasury yield hit a new 2021 high on Friday, climbing to 1.64%. The indexed-linked yield was up four basis points last week, to -0.62%. The break-even inflation rate…
The Biden administration is backing prominent Big Tech critics, but this does not appear to have deterred investors this week. The FAAMGs were all up strongly yesterday. Current valuations are…
The break-even inflation rate for 10-year Treasuries is showing signs of turning up again. Friday’s close (2.22%) was still two basis points below the current cyclical high, reached on February…
Jay Powell made repeated calls for additional fiscal support last year, emphasising the “dire consequences” if Congress failed to deliver. On Tuesday last week, during the first of two days…
Bond investors may be starting to demand a premium on government debt, given the record stimulus plans in the US. Inflation expectations have been leading bond yields higher, but real…
