China’s trade surplus in goods surged to a record $1.082tr in the twelve months to March. Nominal exports climbed 12.4% y/y, while imports contracted 4.3% y/y. Real exports have been…
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The Japanese inflation numbers may not be top of investors’ minds, but the implications of the inflation regime shift remain significant. Ex-fresh food Tokyo CPI inflation quickened from 2.44% to…
President Trump’s renewed broadside against the Fed chair yesterday helped push stocks, bonds, and the dollar lower, as gold rose to a record high. Ultimately, it may serve President Trump…
Last week’s sharp move higher in US bond yields was indicative of the risks that are developing in markets. They prompted a cascade of commentary on ‘Treasury basis trades’, ‘swap…
Successive administrations have repeatedly delayed the necessary changes, and short-term pain, required to get a grip on the public finances. Tariffs are one policy tool that could, if implemented correctly,…
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent continues to reiterate his intentions to lower 10-year US Treasury yields. But attempts to jawbone Treasury yields lower will only work so far. Contrary to the…
