Oil shrugged off fears over the weekend of a wider escalation in the Middle East: Iran’s response was highly telegraphed. Bonds continued to sell off, however, despite some anticipation of a…
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After another very strong payrolls report on Friday, markets are finally pricing in less than three rate cuts this year: eventually, all rate cuts may get priced out. Aggregate weekly…
Ongoing weakness in China was a base case for many heading in 2024. Sales at the 100 largest homebuilders fell 46% y/y in March. However, new orders and new export…
The core (ex-food & energy) PCE price index is ‘nowcast’ to have risen by an annualised 3.31% in Q1. If the Fed cuts three times this year, against this backdrop,…
The latest data reaffirm there is not a good case for cutting rates this year. The price action in gold is a sign of inflation concerns, loose monetary policy, a…
