The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was a ‘landmark’ in the fight against climate change. The CBO estimated that it would reduce deficits by $238bn over a decade (2022-31): the legislation…
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US Treasury yields climbed towards the end of last week, lifted by a soft 30-year auction on Thursday. There has been a major repricing since the strong payrolls report on…
Payrolls (+356k on an average 3-month change) are currently running at a pace that far exceeds that consistent with a steady unemployment rate. One recent NBER paper estimates that ‘breakeven’…
The big improvement in the consumption deflator should have given the Treasury market ample reason to stage a big rally into this week’s Fed meeting. But Treasury yields are proving…
Rapid rate hikes, globally, are failing to introduce enough slack into labour markets to reassure policymakers. There is a big ‘risk’ that the US jobless rate will remain below the…
China moved early to identify renewable-energy technologies as strategically important, offering years of generous subsidies. Costs for the manufacture of wind turbines and solar panels continue to tumble in China….
Exemplary disinflation has become the dominant narrative, after a string of ‘positive’ CPI reports in the US. But all eyes should be on industrial metals, which are signalling that the…
