The Fed’s inflation problem has not disappeared due to one ‘positive’ CPI reading. There have been many premature declarations of a ‘pivot’. A single reading does not make a trend…
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The reopening of the Chinese economy will be a double-edged sword for markets. Stocks may get a short-term reprieve. But the reaction of oil prices today was telling: at one…
Homebuilder sentiment fell for the 10th straight month in October, down eight points to 38, and more than half the level of just six months ago. Yet the 10-year Treasury…
This was a terrible CPI report for risk assets, as the 10-year Treasury yield topped 4%. There was a big ‘beat’ on the headline and core CPI prints. The acceleration…
Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) initially bore the brunt of the deleveraging campaign in China and the crackdown on shadow financing. But since last year, local governments have once again…
The Citrix buyout debt sale is a warning for credit markets. Banks bore significant losses ($600 million) in a debt sale that will lead to a retrenchment in lending to…
The decline in the Virtus Private Credit Strategy ETF has accelerated, down 17.47% YTD. Private equity was able to ride out the first stage of the bear market well: but…
The bond market has given a clear verdict on the new UK Government’s tax cuts and borrowing spree. The losses on Gilts have been outsized against a backdrop of a…
Italian government bond yields jumped again this morning, as Prime Minister Mario Draghi resigned. Snap elections are expected to be announced shortly. Yields on Spanish, Portuguese and Greek government debt…
Markets were buoyed last week by the drop in longer-term (5-year) consumer inflation expectations in the US (Michigan). Stocks could rally because the Fed would not be so aggressive on…
