Some better news on the PSNB ex, which posted a surplus of £5.4bn in January. Total income tax receipts have turned higher, up 12.7% y/y (6-month moving average), the strongest…
There has been a major repricing in US Treasuries since the end of January. A series of upside surprises to the data have strengthened the conviction that this economy can…
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) was a ‘landmark’ in the fight against climate change. The CBO estimated that it would reduce deficits by $238bn over a decade (2022-31): the legislation…
US Treasury yields climbed towards the end of last week, lifted by a soft 30-year auction on Thursday. There has been a major repricing since the strong payrolls report on…
Payrolls (+356k on an average 3-month change) are currently running at a pace that far exceeds that consistent with a steady unemployment rate. One recent NBER paper estimates that ‘breakeven’…
The big improvement in the consumption deflator should have given the Treasury market ample reason to stage a big rally into this week’s Fed meeting. But Treasury yields are proving…
